This time the goal is to deliver the third and final segment of the Japanese Kibo science research facility and connect it during a series of spacewalks.
If only matters were going so well with development of NASA’s Ares 1 rocket and manned Orion moonships, the vehicles that are supposed to replace the shuttle fleet.
Their problems appear to be mounting with potentially dire consequences as NASA’s moon program undergoes a complete review by a blue-ribbon presidential panel that could decide its fate.
The latest trouble comes in an Air Force analysis obtained by FLORIDA TODAY that indicates the Orion spaceship and astronauts onboard might not survive an explosive Ares 1 launch failure.
The Ares will launch astronauts inside Apollo-like Orion capsules, which would include an Apollo-like abort system.
The system would sit atop the Orion and feature a long pole attached to small rocket motors that, when fired, would pull the Orion capsule off and away from an exploding rocket. Parachutes would then bring the capsule and astronauts safely to the ground.
However, the Air Force analysis questioned whether the abort system would work fast enough to prevent explosive debris from hitting the capsule if the first stage blew up in flight, which could doom the crew.
NASA officials are downplaying the concerns, saying a new supercomputer analysis shows the abort system will do its job. They also say the chance of an Ares 1 first-stage failure is remote, placing the odds at 1 in 3,000 to 1 in 3,500.
Such problems and contesting points of view are not unusual in major aerospace development projects, but solving them takes time and money. However, Ares-Orion is rapidly running out of both.
Along with, perhaps, the support of the Obama White House and Congress.
Previous troubles have raised the project’s price from $28 billion to about $40 billion to reach the first manned flight in 2015, a launch target that many say NASA will never meet.
All of which could lead the review panel, led by Norman Augustine, a retired chairman and CEO of Lockheed Martin, to recommend scrapping the configuration and replacing it with redesigned rockets now used to launch satellites.
The abort system controversy shows again why the panel should look under every rock and come to cold, clear-eyed conclusions about Ares-Orion and the best course of action to take.
The future of NASA’s human spaceflight program hangs in the balance along with the future of Kennedy Space Center and thousands of jobs that are crucial to the Brevard County and Florida economies.
The real score on Ares-Orion — in terms of feasibility, performance, meeting development and launch deadlines, and the ultimate cost — must be known.
Anything less is a fool’s errand.
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